Pulse Asia's July 2008 nationwide survey on 2010 elections

Ulat ng Bayan

This survey just mirrors what I wrote in my blog a few weeks ago, except that Noli de Castro seems to have risen in the rankings. Well, you have to thank the Pag-Ibig ads for it, the fact that he is the only administration candidate, and that he has been treading very, very carefully on sensitive political issues. Like walking on eggshells. -- Danton


Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings from the July 2008 Ulat ng Bayan national survey on 2010 Elections. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information on Filipino perceptions, opinions, sentiments, and attitudes relating to current developments here and abroad.

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/-3% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a +/- 6% error margin, also at 95% confidence level. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from July 1 to 14, 2008. (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)

In the period prior to and during the conduct of this survey, the news headlines focused on developments having to do with the increasing demand for NFA rice across the country, the granting of various subsidies to the Filipino poor particularly through the administration’s “Katas ng VAT” program, the signing into law of the cheaper medicines and tax exemption bills, the President’s call for a review of the power rates being charged by MERALCO and GSIS President Winston Garcia’s efforts to take over the management of MERALCO, several natural disasters in the Philippines and other parts of the world that resulted in loss of lives and destruction of properties (e.g., especially the aftermath of Typhoon Frank which hit the country in late June 2008), the investigations into the sinking of the M/V Princess of the Stars by the House of Representatives and the Board of Marine Inquiry (BMI), the worsening global food crisis, the continuing increase in oil and food prices, the depreciation of the local currency, and sustained calls for further wage increases and fare hikes.

The survey’s sampling design and questionnaire are the full responsibility of Pulse Asia’s pool of academic experts and no religious, political, economic or any other form of partisanship has been allowed to influence the survey design, the findings generated by the actual surveys or the subsequent analyses of survey findings.

Pulse Asia undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

De Castro and “Erap” Estrada lead the presidentiables

If the May 2010 elections were held today, Pulse Asia’s July 1-14, 2008 Ulat ng Bayan survey shows that Vice Pres. Noli de Castro and former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada would lead the presidential race. Some 22% of Filipino adults express support for VP de Castro, while 16% support former President Estrada. Given the survey’s margin of error of ±3%, the two are essentially tied for first place.

Closely following on the heels of former President Estrada are Senators Francis “Chiz” Escudero (14%), Loren Legarda (14%), Manuel “Manny” B. Villar (12%) and Manuel “Mar” Roxas (8%). These four senators are essentially tied for second place, while the rest of the possible presidential candidates included in the list of 10 names are essentially tied for third place. On the other hand, some 4% of Filipino adults have no presidential preference, refuse to name them or are undecided. (See Table 1).

Results indicate that Vice Pres. De Castro essentially maintains the voter support (21%) that he enjoyed in March 2008. On the other hand, inclusion of the name of former President Estrada in the list appears to have drawn voter preference away from some candidates identified with the opposition namely, Senator Panfilo “Ping Lacson” (down by 5 percentage points from 10% in March ’08 ), Senator Legarda (down by 4pp) and Senator Roxas (down by 2pp). But two possible presidential candidates also identified with the opposition, Senators Escudero and Villar, register marginal increases (1% and 3%, respectively) in voter support. (See Table 2).

Escudero and Legarda lead the vice-presidential race

As for the vice-presidential race, Senators Escudero and Legarda would be tied for first place if the May 2010 elections were held today, with the former obtaining 25% of the votes and the latter, 23%. Tied for a distant second place with voter preference in the 5% to 11% range are Sen. Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan, Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, Makati Mayor Jejomar “Jojo” Binay, Sen. Ramon “Bong” Revilla, and Batangas Governor Vilma “Ate Vi” Santos. Three other possible candidates included in the list obtain voter preference of 4% or lower. On the other hand, about 7% of Filipino adults have no vice-presidential presidential preference, refuse to name them or are undecided. (See Table 3).

A comparison of the current survey results with the results in the previous round shows that preference for the possible vice-presidential candidates is essentially unchanged since March 2008. (See Table 4).

Legarda-Escudero is preferred among three tandems

If the May 2010 elections were held today, the Legarda-Escudero tandem would obtain the highest voter support (40%). The Villar-de Castro and Roxas-Pangilinan tandems obtain 26% and 13% voter preference, respectively. However, about one in five Filipino adults do not prefer any of the three tandems presented. The percentage of adults without a preference for any of the three tandems is particularly high in Balance Luzon (31%). (See Table 5).

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