Pulse Asia's July 2008 Nationwide Survey on 2010 Senatorial Race

I am not in the list of names given to the survey respondents so, obviously, the respondents could not choose me. Maybe next time, Pulse can widen the net of voters to include us from the far side?

Then we will see who will eat the dust. -- Danton


Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings from the July 2008 Ulat ng Bayan national survey on 2010 Senatorial Race. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information on Filipino perceptions, opinions, sentiments, and attitudes relating to current developments here and abroad.

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 3% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a +/- 6% error margin, also at 95% confidence level. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from July 1 to 14, 2008. (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)

In the period prior to and during the conduct of this survey, the news headlines focused on developments having to do with the increasing demand for NFA rice across the country, the granting of various subsidies to the Filipino poor particularly through the administration’s “Katas ng VAT” program, the signing into law of the cheaper medicines and tax exemption bills, the President’s call for a review of the power rates being charged by MERALCO and GSIS President Winston Garcia’s efforts to take over the management of MERALCO, several natural disasters in the Philippines and other parts of the world that resulted in loss of lives and destruction of properties (e.g., especially the aftermath of Typhoon Frank which hit the country in late June 2008), the investigations into the sinking of the M/V Princess of the Stars by the House of Representatives and the Board of Marine Inquiry (BMI), the worsening global food crisis, the continuing increase in oil and food prices, the depreciation of the local currency, and sustained calls for further wage increases and fare hikes.

The survey’s sampling design and questionnaire are the full responsibility of Pulse Asia’s pool of academic experts and no religious, political, economic or any other form of partisanship has been allowed to influence the survey design, the findings generated by the actual surveys or the subsequent analyses of survey findings.

Pulse Asia undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

Incumbent and former senators dominate the 2010 senatorial race

If the May 2010 elections were held today, 14 possible senatorial candidates would have a statistical chance of winning a seat in the Philippine Senate. Senators Pia Cayetano (48.2%), Jose “Jinggoy” Estrada (47.3%) and Manuel “Mar” Roxas (46%) and former Senator Franklin “Frank” Drilon (44.1%) lead the list. Given the survey’s error margin, these four are tied for first place. Following these senatorial race leaders are Mr. Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel (39%), a 2007 senatorial candidate, Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago (37.2%), former senators Sergio “Serge” OsmeƱa and Ralph Recto (both at 35.6%), Senators Ramon “Bong” Revilla (34.6%) and Jamby Madrigal (34.5%), and former Senators Ramon “Jun” B. Magsaysay, Jr. (30.6%) and Vicente “Tito” Sotto (26.5%).

Completing the list of probable senatorial winners are Senator Juan “Johnny” Ponce Enrile (26.3%) and Makati Mayor Jejomar “Jojo” Binay (25.2%). Sen. Enrile has a statistical rank of 11-15, while Mayor Binay has a statistical rank of 12-16 (See Table 1a and 1b).

Presented with a list of 60 names for the senatorial race, Filipino adults name a mean of nine and a median of 11 (out of a maximum of 12) individuals as
their bets to the Philippine Senate.

On the other hand, 6.6% of Filipino adults are either still undecided as regards their senatorial candidates or refuse to name their senatorial preferences at this time.

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